?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 8 games
25%
Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
iLTW · 6 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%

Brame

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SkyLark · 18 games
61%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
76%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
472 picks · 277 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 539 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 513 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
358 picks · 476 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 485 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 516 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
272 picks · 189 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 346 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Nigma Galaxy 59%Brame 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Brame in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireMiracle-
48% · 187 games58% · 40 games
Chaos KnightFocus
Chaos Knight
Huskar
HuskariLTW
50% · 12 games56% · 66 games
WindrangerThuG
Windranger
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
46% · 267 games50% · 138 games
Sand KingSkyLark
Sand King
Dazzle
DazzleKuroKy
47% · 11 games48% · 59 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Mirana
MiranaGH
51% · 100 games49% · 274 games
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed16:26
Nigma Galaxy 58%Brame 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Brame in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMiracle-
43% · 235 games47% · 163 games
Phantom AssassinFocus
Phantom Assassin
Luna
LunaiLTW
49% · 156 games45% · 176 games
Dragon KnightThuG
Dragon Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMinD_ContRoL
51% · 105 games54% · 83 games
Keeper of the LightdEsire
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskGH
54% · 78 games56% · 191 game
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Bane
BaneKuroKy
51% · 225 games51% · 186 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2