BLAST Slam VI. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CCheeki_Breekiwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
Pugna
GH · 17 games
Tusk
GH · 16 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 15 games
Cheeki_Breeki
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
581 picks · 632 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 330 bans
Dragon Knight
499 picks · 685 bans
Snapfire
478 picks · 184 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 532 bans
Hoodwink
440 picks · 215 bans
Mars
395 picks · 544 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 530 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:24
Nigma Galaxy 60%Cheeki_Breeki 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:04:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerincyq
SniperLorenof
SlardarNo!ob
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
ViperSumaiL
TidehunterMalik
WarlockGH
Shadow ShamanOneJey
HoodwinkOmaR
DisruptorXakoda
Game 2prediction missed17:36
Nigma Galaxy 62%Cheeki_Breeki 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Cheeki_Breeki in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerSumaiL
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Clinkzrincyq
Storm SpiritLorenof
MarsNo!ob
TidehunterMalik
TinyOmaR
WeaverOneJey
WarlockGH
DisruptorXakoda
Game 3prediction missed16:32
Nigma Galaxy 61%Cheeki_Breeki 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Cheeki_Breeki in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSumaiL
GyrocopterDarkLord^
Dragon Knightrincyq
Ember SpiritLorenof
AxeNo!ob
MarsMalik
RingmasterOmaR
JakiroXakoda
DazzleGH
WeaverOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultCheeki_Breeki 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3