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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EU Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 7 games
100%

EU Rejects

Viper
Viperoften banned
j4 · 5 games
40%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 4 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
TANNER · 3 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
TANNER · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marcioften banned
j4 · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Adzantick · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
537 picks · 453 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 682 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 542 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 281 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 804 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
335 picks · 541 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 13%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:13
Nigma Galaxy 71%EU Rejects 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMinD_ContRoL
48% · 95 games55% · 28 games
BristlebackShad
Bristleback
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
49% · 138 games45% · 188 games
KunkkaAdzantick
Kunkka
Zeus
ZeusKuroKy
49% · 37 games50% · 90 games
BatriderChessie
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
51% · 162 games48% · 62 games
Winter Wyvernj4
Winter Wyvern
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenGH
48% · 21 game57% · 85 games
MarciTANNER
Marci
Game 2prediction correct56:51
Nigma Galaxy 72%EU Rejects 28%
The model gave 72% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
58% · 105 games52% · 109 games
Winter WyvernAdzantick
Winter Wyvern
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
58% · 102 games42% · 94 games
DawnbreakerShad
Dawnbreaker
Pudge
PudgeMiracle-
51% · 32 games43% · 110 games
TimbersawChessie
Timbersaw
Undying
UndyingMinD_ContRoL
54% · 55 games48% · 92 games
RubickTANNER
Rubick
Tiny
TinyKuroKy
50% · 227 games42% · 116 games
Clockwerkj4
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 83%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2