?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 9 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
GH · 7 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 10 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
tOfu · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
tOfu · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ace · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 342 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
331 picks · 326 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
259 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
253 picks · 190 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
199 picks · 142 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
177 picks · 105 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
176 picks · 495 bans
53%
Silencer
Silencer
170 picks · 186 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:21
Nigma Galaxy 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenATF
60% · 23 games45% · 261 game
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
44% · 99 games47% · 28 games
Witch DoctorAce
Witch Doctor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
50% · 188 games47% · 182 games
BatriderQuinn
Batrider
Tiny
TinyGH
54% · 277 games52% · 193 games
IoSeleri
Io
Mirana
MiranaKuroKy
55% · 127 games49% · 50 games
RikitOfu
Riki
Game 2prediction missed42:8
Nigma Galaxy 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSumaiL
50% · 292 games55% · 77 games
Nature's ProphetAce
Nature's Prophet
Sven
SvenATF
57% · 55 games45% · 142 games
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
50% · 46 games49% · 173 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Mirana
MiranaGH
52% · 297 games40% · 160 games
HoodwinkSeleri
Hoodwink
Riki
RikiKuroKy
57% · 42 games47% · 180 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct14:26
Nigma Galaxy 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
46% · 61 game50% · 188 games
Linadyrachyo
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
46% · 163 games48% · 93 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Viper
ViperATF
55% · 78 games49% · 147 games
BatriderQuinn
Batrider
Rubick
RubickGH
57% · 174 games48% · 67 games
Dark WillowtOfu
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskKuroKy
48% · 187 games53% · 168 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3