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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
40%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 28 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 19 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 17 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 17 games
76%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
87%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
847 picks · 597 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
612 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 540 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 427 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
507 picks · 809 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
453 picks · 309 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
452 picks · 935 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
402 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total83% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Nigma Galaxy 28%Gaimin Gladiators 72%
The model gave 72% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
46% · 172 games49% · 321 game
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerATF
50% · 186 games52% · 152 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
51% · 238 games49% · 134 games
Keeper of the LightAce
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
48% · 67 games50% · 164 games
Monkey KingtOfu
Monkey King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuroKy
48% · 284 games55% · 176 games
DisruptorSeleri
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct10:34
Nigma Galaxy 28%Gaimin Gladiators 72%
The model gave 72% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarATF
52% · 13 games51% · 71 game
LycanAce
Lycan
Ursa
UrsaSumaiL
55% · 159 games46% · 89 games
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
Drow Ranger
Snapfire
SnapfireMinD_ContRoL
47% · 358 games54% · 208 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
49% · 134 games54% · 226 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
42% · 68 games49% · 138 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct6:28
Nigma Galaxy 31%Gaimin Gladiators 69%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSumaiL
42% · 119 games49% · 92 games
Naga Sirendyrachyo
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
54% · 303 games46% · 244 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetATF
52% · 341 game45% · 46 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
60% · 228 games51% · 181 game
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKuroKy
51% · 36 games48% · 464 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 83%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3