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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%

Hellbear Smashers

Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 22 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 17 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 16 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 15 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
467 picks · 191 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 583 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 870 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 245 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 443 bans
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:20
Nigma Galaxy 54%Hellbear Smashers 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
51% · 69 games46% · 36 games
Phantom LancerAce
Phantom Lancer
Gyrocopter
GyrocopteriLTW
50% · 36 games50% · 83 games
LinaBor@nija
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
54% · 71 game45% · 60 games
AxeMISERY
Axe
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
60% · 98 games48% · 35 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Io
IoGH
49% · 17 games41% · 77 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Nigma Galaxy 56%Hellbear Smashers 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
51% · 66 games50% · 71 game
TerrorbladeAce
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow RangeriLTW
56% · 32 games44% · 80 games
Storm SpiritBor@nija
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
53% · 112 games44% · 105 games
Dragon KnightMISERY
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
50% · 103 games47% · 55 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
60% · 125 games46% · 127 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct28:22
Nigma Galaxy 55%Hellbear Smashers 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeiLTW
61% · 96 games43% · 70 games
Phantom LancerAce
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMiracle-
52% · 109 games53% · 181 game
MiranaBor@nija
Mirana
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
52% · 94 games42% · 146 games
Dragon KnightMISERY
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
51% · 168 games48% · 154 games
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Ancient Apparition
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
54% · 155 games42% · 71 game
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3