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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 36 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 23 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 23 games
61%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 18 games
39%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
472 picks · 242 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
463 picks · 448 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 952 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
322 picks · 369 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 221 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 667 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed56:64
Nigma Galaxy 81%Kalmychata 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 1:17:10.
Game 2prediction correct40:21
Nigma Galaxy 81%Kalmychata 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:14.
Game 3prediction correct45:26
Nigma Galaxy 81%Kalmychata 19%
The model gave 81% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3