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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 17 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
47%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 29 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
667 picks · 783 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
546 picks · 527 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 412 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
457 picks · 315 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1121 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 601 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 801 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
390 picks · 314 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
Nigma Galaxy 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 47:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
52% · 63 games51% · 97 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo!ob
51% · 258 games45% · 297 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
50% · 157 games47% · 302 games
BatriderCorrupted
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
47% · 158 games53% · 73 games
VenomancerRESPECT
Venomancer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
52% · 226 games54% · 93 games
Rubicksayuw
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Nigma Galaxy 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightrincyq
47% · 363 games50% · 378 games
Abaddonssnovv1
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
52% · 315 games38% · 381 game
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderDavai
53% · 430 games46% · 340 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Bane
BaneGH
55% · 164 games53% · 239 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
60% · 326 games47% · 260 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2