ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 22 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
HULIGANI
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 43 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 40 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 39 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 39 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
512 picks · 279 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 565 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 351 bans
Jakiro
440 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 326 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 838 bans
Puck
345 picks · 842 bans
Rubick
336 picks · 177 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:9
Nigma Galaxy 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterrincyq
Terrorbladessnovv1
TimbersawDavai
BristlebackMirage
ViperNo!ob
Sand KingCorrupted
TechiesGH
BatriderRESPECT
ClockwerkOmaR
Rubicksayuw
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Nigma Galaxy 65%HULIGANI 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezrincyq
Windrangerssnovv1
PuckNo!ob
PangolierMirage
Legion CommanderDavai
BristlebackCorrupted
Keeper of the LightGH
Rubicksayuw
BatriderOmaR
SilencerRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 74%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2