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BetBoom Dacha · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Level UPloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 15 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 10 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
71%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 10 games
80%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
623 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
487 picks · 296 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 899 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 810 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
386 picks · 393 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
382 picks · 859 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
356 picks · 935 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 416 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 77%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:27
Nigma Galaxy 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuma
47% · 116 games47% · 68 games
SvenDaxak
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
51% · 110 games51% · 157 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGH
53% · 22 games54% · 59 games
Legion CommanderOwnedMe
Legion Commander
Disruptor
DisruptorKuroKy
49% · 214 games49% · 100 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
53% · 78 games
Shadow DemonMiLAN
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed21:10
Nigma Galaxy 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
50% · 167 games55% · 70 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
49% · 85 games58% · 54 games
VisageDaxak
Visage
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKuroKy
52% · 19 games38% · 25 games
Centaur WarrunnerOwnedMe
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGH
46% · 37 games55% · 113 games
TechiesMiLAN
Techies
44% · 46 games
Ioswedenstrong
Io
Game 3prediction missed33:7
Nigma Galaxy 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
47% · 218 games54% · 127 games
Templar AssassinDaxak
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
53% · 350 games55% · 60 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
49% · 309 games45% · 202 games
TimbersawOwnedMe
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
57% · 72 games46% · 513 games
RubickMiLAN
Rubick
44% · 47 games
Lionswedenstrong
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3