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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
KuroKy · 8 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 214 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
368 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 186 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 208 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 70%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:15
Nigma Galaxy 38%LGD Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingiLTW
57% · 102 games47% · 58 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckMiracle-
50% · 174 games52% · 120 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
42% · 43 games49% · 50 games
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
Legion Commander
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
61% · 35 games44% · 116 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKuroKy
46% · 91 game52% · 101 game
Elder Titany`
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct15:43
Nigma Galaxy 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMinD_ContRoL
50% · 34 games57% · 73 games
Templar AssassinNothingToSay
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckMiracle-
44% · 120 games54% · 42 games
SpectreAme
Spectre
Lifestealer
LifestealeriLTW
50% · 34 games53% · 69 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
43% · 55 games55% · 111 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKuroKy
47% · 83 games49% · 31 game
Skywrath MageXinQ
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2