Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Monaspawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
GH · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 6 games
Rubick
GH · 6 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
893 picks · 618 bans
Tiny
635 picks · 442 bans
Nature's Prophet
538 picks · 853 bans
Treant Protector
536 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
477 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
467 picks · 1001 bans
Clockwerk
440 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Monaspa
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:42
Nigma Galaxy 51%Monaspa 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Monaspa in 1:21:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultMonaspa 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1