?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 25 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 22 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 20 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 18 games
83%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%

Natus Vincere

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 20 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 11 games
27%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 734 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
489 picks · 793 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 476 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
444 picks · 376 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 530 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
431 picks · 1041 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
410 picks · 939 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 530 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:37
Nigma Galaxy 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 58:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperGhost
51% · 130 games52% · 259 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
58% · 203 games47% · 28 games
DazzleBOOM
Dazzle
Abaddon
AbaddonNo!ob
44% · 68 games54% · 253 games
TinySancity
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroGH
43% · 140 games52% · 77 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
43% · 290 games52% · 214 games
TuskQBFY
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct35:6
Nigma Galaxy 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
50% · 143 games54% · 340 games
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
50% · 293 games50% · 190 games
TerrorbladeBOOM
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
54% · 265 games47% · 269 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
49% · 330 games46% · 398 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskGH
48% · 287 games54% · 121 game
WeaverQBFY
Weaver
Game 3prediction correct33:15
Nigma Galaxy 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
51% · 132 games52% · 272 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
53% · 100 games49% · 24 games
Death ProphetSancity
Death Prophet
Marci
MarciNo!ob
44% · 89 games54% · 179 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Weaver
WeaverOmaR
48% · 115 games51% · 263 games
MuertaQBFY
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
45% · 334 games55% · 32 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3