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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 19 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptor
KuroKy · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
SumaiL · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 10 games
80%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
SumaiL · 10 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
40%

Nightshade

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 3 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Kyzko · 2 games
0%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
359 picks · 350 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
356 picks · 407 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
344 picks · 258 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 511 bans
48%
Sven
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
282 picks · 255 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
276 picks · 367 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 459 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Nigma Galaxy 77%Nightshade 23%
The model gave 77% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 17:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMiracle-
43% · 19 games48% · 148 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
47% · 57 games57% · 104 games
Naga SirenLeBronDota
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsNo!ob
48% · 143 games47% · 214 games
Rubickwaveformn
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
53% · 140 games
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
53% · 107 games
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Nigma Galaxy 76%Nightshade 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaMiracle-
60% · 68 games48% · 158 games
KunkkaChodΣX
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
53% · 54 games48% · 135 games
Snapfirewaveformn
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
51% · 95 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
40% · 11 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
47% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 91%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2