DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Disruptor
GH · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Rubick
GH · 7 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
nouns
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 15 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 15 games
Tusksignature
Gunnar · 11 games
Tiny
Lelis · 10 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Moo · 7 games
Snapfire
Lelis · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
958 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
657 picks · 463 bans
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 924 bans
Tusk
549 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 528 bans
Snapfire
517 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
495 picks · 1090 bans
Clockwerk
465 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:14
Nigma Galaxy 39%nouns 61%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Keeper of the LightGunnar
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Chaos KnightYamSun
LifestealerMiracle-
EnigmaMoo
PhoenixGH
TinyLelis
EnchantressKuroKy
MiranaHusky
Game 2prediction correct16:30
Nigma Galaxy 40%nouns 60%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMiracle-
InvokerGunnar
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Drow RangerYamSun
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Witch DoctorMoo
EnchantressKuroKy
EarthshakerLelis
DisruptorGH
UndyingHusky
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 67%
Accuracy by game1 of 2