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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 37 games
51%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 30 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 21 game
52%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 20 games
60%

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 17 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 15 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 370 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 223 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 652 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
341 picks · 347 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
321 picks · 339 bans
60%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 236 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 441 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
294 picks · 388 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Nigma Galaxy 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
54% · 372 games54% · 182 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Lifestealer
LifestealerSumaiL
50% · 109 games52% · 425 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Slardar
SlardarDavai
51% · 339 games45% · 409 games
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
49% · 527 games45% · 109 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
56% · 77 games43% · 299 games
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed13:27
Nigma Galaxy 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 28:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLorenof
44% · 10 games57% · 14 games
MeepoNatsumi
Meepo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSumaiL
54% · 213 games47% · 374 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Slardar
SlardarDavai
60% · 308 games45% · 182 games
UnderlordRaven
Underlord
Windranger
WindrangerOmaR
53% · 245 games41% · 218 games
RubickTims
Rubick
Bane
BaneGH
60% · 169 games39% · 157 games
EnchantressSkem
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2