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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OG LATAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%

OG LATAM

Jakiro
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
MoOz · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
DarkMago · 2 games
0%
Sven
Sven
K1 · 2 games
0%
Underlord
Underlord
ILICH- · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
K1 · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 490 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 566 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
373 picks · 180 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
290 picks · 545 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
271 picks · 378 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
263 picks · 154 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 144 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
Nigma Galaxy 68%OG LATAM 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
47% · 112 games44% · 212 games
MedusaILICH-
Medusa
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
49% · 202 games51% · 161 game
UrsaK1
Ursa
Doom
DoomNo!ob
52% · 185 games59% · 316 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskyamich
45% · 237 games49% · 79 games
SilencerMoOz
Silencer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
54% · 134 games51% · 102 games
Shadow ShamanElmisho
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct27:6
Nigma Galaxy 68%OG LATAM 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciGhost
45% · 110 games46% · 120 games
Nature's ProphetILICH-
Nature's Prophet
Tinker
TinkerSumaiL
55% · 86 games54% · 265 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusNo!ob
55% · 208 games47% · 96 games
TidehunterK1
Tidehunter
Io
IoGH
47% · 42 games50% · 93 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tuskyamich
51% · 294 games49% · 166 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2