?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%

Power Rangers

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 8 games
25%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 6 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Alberkaaa · 5 games
20%
Luna
Luna
nesfeer · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
546 picks · 892 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 393 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 646 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 601 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 846 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 591 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 495 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:36
Nigma Galaxy 68%Power Rangers 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzrincyq
57% · 40 games47% · 169 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
45% · 224 games57% · 36 games
RazorAlberkaaa
Razor
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
56% · 224 games46% · 197 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 210 games45% · 259 games
TinyImmersion
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
57% · 57 games50% · 94 games
DazzleHduo
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed11:25
Nigma Galaxy 66%Power Rangers 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenrincyq
46% · 120 games54% · 189 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
57% · 148 games42% · 173 games
Leshracnicky`cool
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
49% · 152 games47% · 149 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Dazzle
DazzleGH
50% · 108 games57% · 3 games
LargoHduo
Largo
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 210 games54% · 224 games
Shadow DemonImmersion
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 80%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2