?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 17 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 16 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%

Spider Pigzs

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 15 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dnz · 15 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 14 games
36%
Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
LeBronDota · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
485 picks · 196 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
383 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 599 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 879 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 455 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
304 picks · 585 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:9
Nigma Galaxy 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeiLTW
53% · 80 games55% · 47 games
LunaKoma`
Luna
Lina
LinaMiracle-
49% · 111 games57% · 78 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Slardar
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
56% · 55 games47% · 49 games
Sand KingFunn1k
Sand King
Tusk
TuskGH
47% · 120 games42% · 122 games
Grimstrokednz
Grimstroke
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
little data46% · 70 games
EnchantressLeBronDota
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Nigma Galaxy 58%Spider Pigzs 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaiLTW
55% · 71 game56% · 51 game
TerrorbladeKoma`
Terrorblade
Windranger
WindrangerMiracle-
49% · 37 games43% · 130 games
MarsFunn1k
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
53% · 85 games45% · 73 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Io
IoGH
44% · 58 games55% · 31 game
Keeper of the Lightdnz
Keeper of the Light
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKuroKy
53% · 77 games51% · 43 games
HoodwinkLeBronDota
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2