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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 6 games
83%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 4 games
25%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 4 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddon
KuroKy · 3 games
67%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolier
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
36%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
OmaR · 12 games
33%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
OmaR · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
424 picks · 311 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 579 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
330 picks · 384 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
327 picks · 742 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 177 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
251 picks · 441 bans
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
245 picks · 354 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 163 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 23%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:26
Nigma Galaxy 63%Spider Pigzs 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageiLTW
42% · 57 games53% · 136 games
LunaThuG
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMiracle-
50% · 169 games54% · 251 game
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
45% · 87 games52% · 96 games
Sand KingFunn1k
Sand King
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKuroKy
50% · 251 game55% · 127 games
IoOmaR
Io
Tusk
TuskGH
43% · 133 games55% · 87 games
Keeper of the Lightdnz
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct41:14
Nigma Galaxy 64%Spider Pigzs 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassiniLTW
43% · 73 games39% · 121 game
GyrocopterThuG
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaMiracle-
53% · 103 games50% · 173 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
55% · 63 games52% · 36 games
VenomancerFunn1k
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
58% · 109 games51% · 167 games
IoOmaR
Io
Lion
LionKuroKy
54% · 231 game44% · 82 games
Legion Commanderdnz
Legion Commander
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 74%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2