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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:2
strongboyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%

strongboys

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Tobi · 2 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 866 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 379 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
470 picks · 637 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 590 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 813 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 568 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 573 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Nigma Galaxy 74%strongboys 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
67% · 29 games60% · 52 games
Naga SirenLowskill
Naga Siren
Viper
ViperNo!ob
49% · 51 game50% · 41 game
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
39% · 111 games49% · 77 games
WindrangerStojkov
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
54% · 41 gamelittle data
LargoPonlo
Largo
Dazzle
DazzleGH
52% · 119 games46% · 181 game
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Nigma Galaxy 73%strongboys 27%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by strongboys in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSumaiL
51% · 294 games48% · 312 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
44% · 113 games45% · 421 game
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Clinkz
Clinkzrincyq
59% · 49 games44% · 98 games
BrewmasterChodΣX
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroGH
51% · 410 games56% · 213 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
54% · 239 games52% · 61 game
Nyx AssassinTobi
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed23:30
Nigma Galaxy 73%strongboys 27%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by strongboys in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
53% · 51 game56% · 43 games
ClinkzLowskill
Clinkz
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
53% · 293 games51% · 199 games
TimbersawChodΣX
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorNo!ob
59% · 47 games44% · 438 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroGH
46% · 369 games55% · 57 games
Ogre MagiTobi
Ogre Magi
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
51% · 199 games43% · 222 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 89%
Series resultstrongboys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3