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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
rmN- · 7 games
57%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%

Team Bald Reborn

Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ZipZaper · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Excalibur · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
bengan · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 440 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 684 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
408 picks · 288 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 594 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 569 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 623 bans
48%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Nigma Galaxy 54%Team Bald Reborn 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSumaiL
49% · 95 games47% · 121 game
TinyExcalibur
Tiny
Ursa
UrsaMiracle-
42% · 68 games53% · 35 games
JuggernautGorgc
Juggernaut
Pudge
PudgeMinD_ContRoL
59% · 25 games52% · 71 game
TimbersawZipZaper
Timbersaw
Zeus
ZeusKuroKy
53% · 41 game50% · 50 games
MarciPablo
Marci
Tusk
TuskGH
52% · 53 games44% · 5 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct45:7
Nigma Galaxy 53%Team Bald Reborn 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
49% · 99 games53% · 43 games
BristlebackGorgc
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
49% · 60 games45% · 208 games
Dragon KnightExcalibur
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
70% · 24 games51% · 55 games
VenomancerZipZaper
Venomancer
Tiny
TinyKuroKy
45% · 148 games56% · 34 games
Zeusbengan
Zeus
Io
IoGH
47% · 78 games55% · 69 games
MarciPablo
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2