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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 19 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 17 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 16 games
50%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 32 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 29 games
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 27 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
672 picks · 831 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 600 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 418 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 628 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 49%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:50
Nigma Galaxy 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertarincyq
47% · 262 games50% · 342 games
WindrangerSkiter
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
49% · 338 games50% · 240 games
Void SpiritMalr1ne
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
52% · 422 games47% · 398 games
MarsATF
Mars
Tiny
TinyOmaR
53% · 562 games53% · 402 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Io
IoGH
53% · 19 games47% · 221 game
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:41
Nigma Galaxy 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
51% · 261 game41% · 178 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Puck
PuckNo!ob
53% · 468 games47% · 353 games
BatriderMalr1ne
Batrider
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
51% · 130 games48% · 363 games
MarsATF
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
50% · 354 games54% · 181 game
ChenSneyking
Chen
Bane
BaneGH
61% · 216 games43% · 354 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 81%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2