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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 38 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
43%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 30 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 21 game
52%
Lion
Lionsignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
76%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 336 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
356 picks · 443 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 547 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 479 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
314 picks · 634 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
297 picks · 323 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
285 picks · 205 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
277 picks · 436 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:25
Nigma Galaxy 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLorenof
45% · 137 games51% · 70 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
46% · 91 game52% · 230 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
Centaur Warrunner
Lifestealer
LifestealerSumaiL
48% · 138 games58% · 55 games
HuskarATF
Huskar
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
56% · 31 game56% · 83 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
42% · 179 games54% · 138 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed40:8
Nigma Galaxy 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLorenof
53% · 184 games52% · 46 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
55% · 99 games47% · 70 games
NecrophosATF
Necrophos
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
50% · 318 games51% · 261 game
Centaur WarrunnerMalr1ne
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaGH
48% · 128 games44% · 190 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
56% · 76 games46% · 238 games
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed32:29
Nigma Galaxy 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 59:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosSumaiL
48% · 74 games48% · 70 games
DoomATF
Doom
Sniper
SniperLorenof
50% · 37 games52% · 53 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
49% · 181 game50% · 176 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaGH
45% · 109 games52% · 11 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
61% · 38 games51% · 129 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3