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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 5 games
60%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Taiga · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
miCKe · 17 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
qojqva · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
qojqva · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 987 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
421 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 703 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 607 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 308 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
297 picks · 260 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
294 picks · 188 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 400 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:38
Nigma Galaxy 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaiLTW
50% · 4 games45% · 10 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Pugna
PugnaMiracle-
50% · 4 games52% · 23 games
Tinyqojqva
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
little data57% · 18 games
SlardarBoxi
Slardar
Tusk
TuskGH
53% · 27 games52% · 19 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeKuroKy
44% · 38 games43% · 3 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed32:19
Nigma Galaxy 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordiLTW
47% · 55 games59% · 39 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckMiracle-
47% · 93 games49% · 126 games
PangolierBoxi
Pangolier
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
51% · 28 games58% · 35 games
Sand Kingqojqva
Sand King
Abaddon
AbaddonKuroKy
41% · 22 games52% · 84 games
MiranaTaiga
Mirana
Tusk
TuskGH
47% · 89 games43% · 3 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct23:42
Nigma Galaxy 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LanceriLTW
51% · 23 games63% · 60 games
JuggernautmiCKe
Juggernaut
Puck
PuckMiracle-
43% · 128 games51% · 128 games
MarsBoxi
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
50% · 16 games42% · 29 games
Tinyqojqva
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaKuroKy
54% · 11 games51% · 30 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskGH
49% · 72 games43% · 3 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3