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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
38%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Enchantress
Enchantress
KuroKy · 8 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
57%

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 32 games
72%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 17 games
88%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 16 games
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
974 picks · 663 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 474 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
584 picks · 937 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
555 picks · 439 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 523 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 347 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
505 picks · 1113 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
477 picks · 350 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 76%
Hero pool strength69% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total95% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:44
Nigma Galaxy 16%Team Liquid 84%
The model gave 84% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMiracle-
45% · 128 games55% · 231 game
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
51% · 327 games51% · 281 game
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Tiny
TinySumaiL
49% · 675 games48% · 549 games
Tuskzai
Tusk
Mirana
MiranaGH
54% · 356 games49% · 327 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKuroKy
43% · 36 games52% · 134 games
IoBoxi
Io
Game 2prediction correct17:38
Nigma Galaxy 18%Team Liquid 82%
The model gave 82% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
48% · 288 games46% · 228 games
MarcimiCKe
Marci
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
49% · 176 games54% · 151 game
Dragon Knightzai
Dragon Knight
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMiracle-
51% · 113 games49% · 156 games
Primal BeastNisha
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGH
45% · 122 games59% · 82 games
IoBoxi
Io
Jakiro
JakiroKuroKy
46% · 90 games54% · 172 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 95%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2