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The International 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
GH · 36 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Ghost · 22 games
36%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
48%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 21 game
62%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OmaR · 19 games
53%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 24 games
58%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Boxi · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
439 picks · 389 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 190 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 343 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 791 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 840 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 214 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
276 picks · 379 bans
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 623 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 7
Model total78% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:20
Nigma Galaxy 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
54% · 161 game45% · 150 games
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Puck
PuckSumaiL
51% · 307 games49% · 147 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
56% · 68 games46% · 152 games
MarciSabeRLight-
Marci
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
57% · 59 games48% · 148 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Tiny
TinyOmaR
47% · 295 games49% · 293 games
Shadow ShamanBoxi
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct22:42
Nigma Galaxy 33%Team Liquid 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
52% · 161 game45% · 231 game
PuckNisha
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 255 games54% · 26 games
Faceless VoidmiCKe
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsNo!ob
45% · 172 games52% · 84 games
UndyingSabeRLight-
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
50% · 145 games49% · 348 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Bane
BaneGH
55% · 124 games51% · 168 games
Shadow DemoniNSaNiA
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct24:43
Nigma Galaxy 33%Team Liquid 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenGhost
46% · 105 games56% · 223 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
47% · 338 games53% · 245 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomNo!ob
54% · 205 games43% · 129 games
MarciSabeRLight-
Marci
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
53% · 109 games55% · 103 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
55% · 24 games37% · 81 game
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 78%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3