Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 37 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 30 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 25 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 32 games
Tuskoften banned
Boxi · 32 games
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 26 games
Largosignature
tOfu · 24 games
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
619 picks · 440 bans
Rubick
552 picks · 320 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 377 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 591 bans
Phoenix
385 picks · 430 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 497 bans
Clockwerk
332 picks · 629 bans
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 373 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:15
Nigma Galaxy 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosLorenof
SpectremiCKe
Shadow FiendSumaiL
UndyingAce
UnderlordDavai
Keeper of the LightBoxi
HoodwinkOmaR
Ember SpiritNisha
BaneGH
Witch DoctortOfu
Game 2prediction missed33:12
Nigma Galaxy 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistSumaiL
Drow RangermiCKe
NecrophosLorenof
PuckNisha
LycanDavai
AxeAce
IoGH
ClockwerktOfu
WindrangerOmaR
Earth SpiritBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2