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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Secretloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 26 games
77%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 13 games
85%

Team Secret

Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 7 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Kyzko · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Adzantick · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Puppey · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 661 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 467 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 528 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
355 picks · 455 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
330 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 402 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
318 picks · 653 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
298 picks · 309 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:27
Nigma Galaxy 67%Team Secret 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiracle-
48% · 150 games54% · 214 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Razor
RazorSumaiL
43% · 83 games52% · 91 game
Dawnbreakerseimei
Dawnbreaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
43% · 130 games59% · 159 games
InvokerAinkrad
Invoker
Lion
LionOmaR
51% · 184 games55% · 59 games
Ogre MagiPuppey
Ogre Magi
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
48% · 145 games46% · 169 games
MuertaKyzko
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct26:17
Nigma Galaxy 67%Team Secret 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMiracle-
51% · 192 games52% · 274 games
Alchemist423
Alchemist
Puck
PuckSumaiL
53% · 223 games48% · 150 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
48% · 150 games53% · 211 games
Magnusseimei
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressGH
50% · 177 games55% · 33 games
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionOmaR
47% · 191 game46% · 265 games
Dark WillowKyzko
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct41:22
Nigma Galaxy 66%Team Secret 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
42% · 177 games49% · 32 games
Meepo423
Meepo
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
44% · 81 game51% · 122 games
ZeusAinkrad
Zeus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
52% · 172 games52% · 135 games
Bristlebackseimei
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaGH
51% · 78 games52% · 355 games
BatriderPuppey
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
53% · 177 games50% · 41 game
Bounty HunterKyzko
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3