Riyadh Masters 2023 MENA Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secret MEloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Disruptor
GH · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
Team Secret ME
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
705 picks · 495 bans
Disruptor
569 picks · 506 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1095 bans
Techies
549 picks · 604 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1219 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1040 bans
Pangolier
461 picks · 920 bans
Enchantress
457 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret ME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:1
Nigma Galaxy 68%Team Secret ME 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:12.
Game 2prediction correct24:28
Nigma Galaxy 68%Team Secret ME 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 54:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2