GAMERS GALAXY: Invitational Series Dubai 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TSMloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Rubick
GH · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
TSM
Bane
DuBu · 15 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
Mirana
MoonMeander · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
SabeRLight- · 7 games
Disruptorsignature
DuBu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
543 picks · 363 bans
Queen of Pain
472 picks · 574 bans
Mars
439 picks · 589 bans
Weaver
417 picks · 734 bans
Kunkka
350 picks · 538 bans
Spirit Breaker
343 picks · 574 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 170 bans
Wraith King
281 picks · 354 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
Nigma Galaxy 30%TSM 70%
The model gave 70% on TSM — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendMiracle-
TinyTimado
Ember SpiritiLTW
Morphlingbryle-
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
SnapfireGH
Shadow ShamanMoonMeander
UndyingKuroKy
ChenDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1