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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 9 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
GH · 7 games
86%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 16 games
75%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 13 games
77%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Skiter · 12 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 12 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 10 games
90%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 8 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
345 picks · 336 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
332 picks · 328 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
230 picks · 242 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
220 picks · 145 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
202 picks · 537 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
201 picks · 169 bans
59%
Leshrac
Leshrac
197 picks · 414 bans
58%
Silencer
Silencer
185 picks · 224 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total84% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:24
Nigma Galaxy 29%Tundra Esports 71%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
51% · 143 games59% · 55 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsATF
46% · 404 games50% · 205 games
TuskNine
Tusk
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
55% · 62 games50% · 248 games
Death Prophet33
Death Prophet
Rubick
RubickKuroKy
45% · 299 games49% · 197 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
50% · 287 games48% · 490 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed28:4
Nigma Galaxy 30%Tundra Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSumaiL
51% · 134 games33% · 20 games
Arc WardenNine
Arc Warden
Huskar
HuskarATF
56% · 21 game50% · 62 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Enigma
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
50% · 168 games52% · 178 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
58% · 56 games43% · 164 games
MiranaSaksa
Mirana
Tusk
TuskKuroKy
53% · 209 games48% · 164 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct17:31
Nigma Galaxy 28%Tundra Esports 72%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
48% · 23 games60% · 16 games
SpectreSkiter
Spectre
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
55% · 145 games54% · 75 games
Visage33
Visage
Razor
RazorATF
40% · 133 games53% · 174 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickGH
48% · 149 games48% · 53 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKuroKy
49% · 41 game51% · 173 games
TuskSaksa
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 84%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3