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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 4 games
25%
Sven
Sven
ATF · 4 games
25%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
80%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
33 · 14 games
79%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
776 picks · 505 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 392 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 440 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 580 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
417 picks · 652 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
398 picks · 286 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
386 picks · 712 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 788 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 58%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total81% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Nigma Galaxy 31%Tundra Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerMinD_ContRoL
46% · 93 games58% · 182 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
43% · 148 games54% · 141 game
Doom33
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
51% · 124 games47% · 219 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireGH
48% · 287 games49% · 104 games
DisruptorSaksa
Disruptor
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKuroKy
55% · 46 games52% · 52 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct21:29
Nigma Galaxy 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
59% · 65 games53% · 126 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Spectre
SpectreMinD_ContRoL
59% · 56 games38% · 81 game
Doom33
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
49% · 153 games49% · 70 games
Dragon KnightNine
Dragon Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGH
62% · 47 games48% · 106 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptorKuroKy
45% · 90 games43% · 28 games
GyrocopterSneyking
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 81%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2