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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 38 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 26 games
65%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 24 games
54%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 33 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 30 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 311 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 577 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 355 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
402 picks · 302 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 205 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 307 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 856 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 849 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:44
Nigma Galaxy 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
51% · 161 game46% · 158 games
KezPure~
Kez
Puck
PuckNo!ob
50% · 308 games53% · 387 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Zeus
ZeusGH
53% · 11 games45% · 186 games
Doom33
Doom
Slardar
SlardarDavai
54% · 173 games48% · 92 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
54% · 312 games46% · 142 games
LionAri
Lion
Game 2prediction missed50:20
Nigma Galaxy 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrincyq
47% · 286 games52% · 197 games
KezPure~
Kez
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
59% · 151 game41% · 330 games
Void Spiritbzm
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
43% · 175 games64% · 171 game
Largo33
Largo
Silencer
SilencerGH
56% · 58 games47% · 153 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
53% · 300 games41% · 119 games
LionAri
Lion
Game 3prediction correct20:52
Nigma Galaxy 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyrincyq
46% · 441 game53% · 279 games
WindrangerPure~
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
45% · 221 game50% · 175 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusDavai
53% · 53 games64% · 184 games
Largo33
Largo
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
46% · 256 games48% · 130 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 367 games48% · 570 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3