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ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 29 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 21 game
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
OmaR · 20 games
60%

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windranger
shiro · 31 game
48%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 15 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
y` · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 12 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Xm · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 642 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 339 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
315 picks · 228 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
308 picks · 298 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
291 picks · 424 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Nigma Galaxy 50%Vici Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
59% · 159 games54% · 311 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 337 games39% · 91 game
Earth SpiritXm
Earth Spirit
Axe
AxeDavai
49% · 210 games51% · 239 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 436 games48% · 70 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Dazzle
DazzleGH
44% · 92 games47% · 523 games
Tusky`
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct18:24
Nigma Galaxy 49%Vici Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLorenof
48% · 29 games57% · 6 games
Vengeful Spiritshiro
Vengeful Spirit
Tiny
TinySumaiL
43% · 275 games54% · 289 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeDavai
48% · 201 game51% · 84 games
ClinkzXm
Clinkz
Undying
UndyingGH
49% · 135 games50% · 269 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
48% · 241 game57% · 233 games
Baney`
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2