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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 31 game
74%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 27 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
36%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 21 game
62%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 21 game
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 21 game
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 624 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 243 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 430 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 827 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 553 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 323 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
358 picks · 822 bans
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
356 picks · 413 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
Nigma Galaxy 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomGhost
53% · 262 games47% · 145 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
54% · 286 games47% · 269 games
PuckLorenof
Puck
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
55% · 207 games43% · 469 games
PangolierDaxak
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskGH
46% · 373 games49% · 126 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOmaR
60% · 66 games52% · 185 games
Shadow ShamanAntares
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct16:18
Nigma Galaxy 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
46% · 138 games54% · 120 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
54% · 200 games52% · 287 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
48% · 15 games50% · 31 game
AxeDaxak
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
52% · 195 games51% · 320 games
MuertaAntares
Muerta
Tusk
TuskGH
45% · 303 games45% · 93 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2