ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Winter Bearloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Miracle- · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
GH · 13 games
Winter Bear
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 3 games
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Phoenix
Stoic · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Snapfire
Stoic · 2 games
Venomancer
Stoic · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
470 picks · 640 bans
Clockwerk
404 picks · 450 bans
Luna
345 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 502 bans
Enchantress
316 picks · 627 bans
Dark Willow
315 picks · 170 bans
Dragon Knight
303 picks · 376 bans
Batrider
281 picks · 292 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength67% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total80% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:22
Nigma Galaxy 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 42:26.
Game 2prediction correct44:5
Nigma Galaxy 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:47.
Game 3prediction correct35:12
Nigma Galaxy 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:53.
Game 4prediction correct26:3
Nigma Galaxy 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 17:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 80%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4