ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winter Bearloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Lion
Delight · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Rubick
jAMES · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
486 picks · 410 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 532 bans
Lion
422 picks · 229 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 721 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 478 bans
Pangolier
371 picks · 597 bans
Beastmaster
360 picks · 942 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total84% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:6
Nigma Galaxy 71%Winter Bear 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackMiracle-
Shadow DemonDelight
Earth SpiritSumaiL
MarsNo!ob
Nyx AssassinOmaR
LichGH
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Nigma Galaxy 68%Winter Bear 32%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSumaiL
Shadow DemonDelight
Templar AssassinMiracle-
DawnbreakerNo!ob
PugnaGH
TuskOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 84%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2