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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 26 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 16 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 14 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 9 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MikSa` · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 659 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
432 picks · 506 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 551 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 188 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
336 picks · 362 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 432 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
314 picks · 873 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 614 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:35
Nigma Galaxy 66%Zero Tenacity 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreMiracle-
44% · 8 games56% · 205 games
WeaverDaaD-
Weaver
Invoker
InvokerSumaiL
43% · 117 games55% · 193 games
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
48% · 265 games54% · 151 game
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
45% · 214 games51% · 166 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 203 games53% · 92 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct37:5
Nigma Galaxy 67%Zero Tenacity 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 22:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMiracle-
50% · 160 games48% · 161 game
Templar AssassinStojkov
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
51% · 174 games48% · 276 games
PhoenixDaaD-
Phoenix
Mars
MarsNo!ob
56% · 223 games49% · 100 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
49% · 101 game45% · 155 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 333 games52% · 299 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Nigma Galaxy 66%Zero Tenacity 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorSumaiL
51% · 153 games46% · 131 game
TerrorbladeDaaD-
Terrorblade
Slark
SlarkMiracle-
57% · 50 games55% · 91 game
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
49% · 192 games47% · 113 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiGH
45% · 57 games44% · 328 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 253 games62% · 42 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 81%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3