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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 19 games
26%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 16 games
56%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 43 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 37 games
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Kami · 32 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 32 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 32 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 945 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 433 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 635 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
465 picks · 616 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 963 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
400 picks · 245 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 666 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 538 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:17
Nigma Galaxy 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidrincyq
57% · 91 game66% · 74 games
RazorNefrit
Razor
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
52% · 467 games52% · 191 game
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
46% · 147 games49% · 91 game
WeaverKami
Weaver
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
40% · 221 game49% · 361 game
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
49% · 235 games45% · 444 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed10:25
Nigma Galaxy 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
52% · 247 games50% · 378 games
TerrorbladeKami
Terrorblade
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
52% · 394 games44% · 348 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
47% · 487 games48% · 395 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
62% · 237 games47% · 181 game
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
55% · 420 games44% · 483 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct25:13
Nigma Galaxy 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
53% · 170 games46% · 61 game
SlarkKami
Slark
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
45% · 350 games45% · 213 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
47% · 142 games51% · 346 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
62% · 65 games50% · 155 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleGH
53% · 114 games51% · 66 games
Spirit BreakerdEsire
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3