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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 31 game
55%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 37 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 34 games
47%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 31 game
77%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
584 picks · 499 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 409 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
494 picks · 253 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 544 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
463 picks · 399 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 917 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
385 picks · 972 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
383 picks · 230 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:18
Nigma Galaxy 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
52% · 185 games50% · 212 games
MuertaKami
Muerta
Lycan
LycanDavai
53% · 76 games53% · 231 game
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
53% · 256 games48% · 94 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
47% · 239 games50% · 158 games
SilencerMoOz
Silencer
Rubick
RubickOmaR
47% · 178 games49% · 239 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct54:12
Nigma Galaxy 61%Zero Tenacity 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
55% · 200 games46% · 95 games
BrewmasterNefrit
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
55% · 355 games49% · 379 games
TinyKami
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaDavai
44% · 173 games46% · 297 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
57% · 334 games53% · 287 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Zeus
ZeusGH
37% · 18 games44% · 22 games
LichMoOz
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2