Ninja Penguins vs ETH — prediction DS2ОК · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Ninja Penguinswin 1:0

series probability

75%25%

probability at match start · final 1:0

EETHloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Doomoften banned

Fayde · 2 games

50%

Weaveroften banned

MiLAN · 2 games

50%

Alchemist

Lowskill · 1 game

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Fayde · 1 game

100%

Meepooften banned

Copy · 1 game

100%

Naga Sirenoften banned

Lowskill · 1 game

100%

Outworld Destroyeroften banned

Copy · 1 game

100%

Pudgeoften banned

Lowskill · 1 game

100%

ETH

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

272 picks · 447 bans

50%

Phoenix

246 picks · 391 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

241 picks · 328 bans

53%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Dark Willow

216 picks · 102 bans

53%

Tusk

216 picks · 204 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

195 picks · 491 bans

53%

Treant Protector

195 picks · 368 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%

Hero pool strength53% Ninja Penguins

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Ninja Penguins

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct47:31

Ninja Penguins 63%ETH 37%

The model gave 63% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 1:18:58.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo