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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 12 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
43%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
LeBronDota · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 11 games
27%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Lukas · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 351 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 331 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
322 picks · 519 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
313 picks · 459 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
302 picks · 232 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
294 picks · 172 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
288 picks · 533 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
283 picks · 433 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total68% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Ninja Penguins 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlayme
45% · 136 games49% · 267 games
PangolierW1sh-
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
53% · 191 game56% · 88 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal Beasttoshiyb
52% · 282 games48% · 187 games
DoomMr. Luck
Doom
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMiLAN
46% · 196 games43% · 150 games
HoodwinkBignum
Hoodwink
60% · 113 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct38:13
Ninja Penguins 58%MarsBet Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlayme
49% · 102 games46% · 92 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
54% · 139 games60% · 96 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spirittoshiyb
48% · 193 games49% · 84 games
Centaur WarrunnerMr. Luck
Centaur Warrunner
Leshrac
LeshracMiLAN
49% · 111 games45% · 209 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
49% · 64 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 68%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2