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Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Bounty Hunter

Rubick
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 15 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ntakii · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 6 games
33%

Cascade Esports

Rubick
Rubick
jAMES · 9 games
44%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 6 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 3 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
jAMES · 3 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Shisui · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 654 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
306 picks · 376 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 449 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 199 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
215 picks · 110 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 623 bans
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
204 picks · 303 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
202 picks · 414 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:26
No Bounty Hunter 60%Cascade Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingkAAN
35% · 27 games54% · 28 games
IoZitraks
Io
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritntakii
49% · 30 gameslittle data
HuskarShisui
Huskar
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
48% · 23 games50% · 32 games
ViperMieRo
Viper
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
47% · 61 game59% · 76 games
OracleKidaro
Oracle
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFlash
44% · 38 games53% · 43 games
TuskjAMES
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct42:8
No Bounty Hunter 60%Cascade Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritntakii
43% · 40 games56% · 47 games
Troll WarlordShisui
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBliNcc
57% · 13 games57% · 31 game
Phantom LancerZitraks
Phantom Lancer
Morphling
MorphlingkAAN
44% · 61 game52% · 36 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
41% · 98 games64% · 61 game
EarthshakerjAMES
Earthshaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFlash
41% · 60 games54% · 97 games
Keeper of the LightKidaro
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 70%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2