Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Creepwavewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubicksignature
ntakii · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 6 games
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Flash · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 4 games
Creepwave
Nyx Assassinsignature
Alexxo · 13 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Void Spiritsignature
Malr1ne · 11 games
Lichsignature
Fishman · 9 games
Marssignature
ATF · 9 games
Miranasignature
Alexxo · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
217 picks · 458 bans
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
Void Spirit
188 picks · 254 bans
Earth Spirit
175 picks · 141 bans
Keeper of the Light
148 picks · 243 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 172 bans
Nyx Assassin
140 picks · 464 bans
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
No Bounty Hunter 46%Creepwave 54%
The model gave 54% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetBliNcc
Phantom LancerCrystallis
BloodseekerkAAN
Death ProphetMalr1ne
Rubickntakii
MarsATF
Earth SpiritdEsire
EarthshakerMiLAN
GrimstrokeFlash
OracleFishman
Game 2prediction correct9:39
No Bounty Hunter 43%Creepwave 57%
The model gave 57% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingkAAN
UrsaCrystallis
Queen of Painntakii
Death ProphetMalr1ne
UnderlordBliNcc
Void SpiritATF
EarthshakerdEsire
MiranaMiLAN
UndyingFlash
ClockwerkFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 60%
Series resultCreepwave 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2