Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 3 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
dEsire · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
EXTREMUM
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
Chuvash · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Chuvash · 3 games
Alchemist
Nefrit · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 2 games
Witch Doctor
G · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 143 bans
Puck
55 picks · 151 bans
Earth Spirit
53 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 89 bans
Undying
43 picks · 64 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 53 bans
Rubick
41 picks · 21 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 87 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 58%
Series resultEXTREMUM 1:2
Series predictionmissed