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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Bounty Hunter

Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ntakii · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 1 game
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Flash · 1 game
0%

Team Bald Reborn

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
pieliedie · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Gorgc · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Rajjix · 1 game
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
pieliedie · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Excalibur · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
277 picks · 416 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
271 picks · 395 bans
45%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 648 bans
60%
Bane
Bane
242 picks · 183 bans
59%
Weaver
Weaver
231 picks · 444 bans
56%
Lina
Lina
217 picks · 479 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
208 picks · 265 bans
47%
Lion
Lion
207 picks · 108 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
No Bounty Hunter 43%Team Bald Reborn 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYellow Flash
49% · 108 games51% · 92 games
KunkkaExcalibur
Kunkka
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightkAAN
48% · 22 games59% · 95 games
RazorGorgc
Razor
Snapfire
SnapfiredEsire
47% · 150 games53% · 202 games
PangolierZipZaper
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterBliNcc
50% · 197 games50% · 126 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNikolica
43% · 166 games52% · 128 games
IoEixn
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:32
No Bounty Hunter 45%Team Bald Reborn 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenkAAN
56% · 104 games49% · 130 games
LunaGorgc
Luna
Mars
MarsBliNcc
47% · 347 games41% · 86 games
Queen of PainExcalibur
Queen of Pain
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerYellow Flash
54% · 18 games47% · 249 games
TidehunterZipZaper
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickdEsire
48% · 121 game48% · 209 games
SnapfirePablo
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNikolica
57% · 216 games56% · 132 games
Elder TitanEixn
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 61%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2