Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 16 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 13 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 8 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Batridersignature
ntakii · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ntakii · 6 games
Winstrike Team
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 8 games
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
357 picks · 751 bans
Void Spirit
334 picks · 444 bans
Mars
288 picks · 505 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
246 picks · 387 bans
Rubick
237 picks · 137 bans
Keeper of the Light
224 picks · 470 bans
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 670 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
No Bounty Hunter 41%Winstrike Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycankAAN
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Ursantakii
Puckre1bl
EarthshakerNARMAN
Timbersawchshrct
Outworld DestroyerBliNcc
Phoenixyamich
OracleFlash
Death ProphetPanto
Game 2prediction correct12:39
No Bounty Hunter 41%Winstrike Team 59%
The model gave 59% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 22:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puckntakii
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
JuggernautkAAN
Kunkkare1bl
VisageBliNcc
Pangolierchshrct
Void SpiritNARMAN
Phoenixyamich
GrimstrokeFlash
OraclePanto
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 63%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2