Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionNHNo Hoodwinkwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFTSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Hoodwink
Lion
Katari_ · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 4 games
Mirana
Katari_ · 4 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 4 games
Baneoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Broodmother
mangekyou · 3 games
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 3 games
FTS
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 1 game
Enchantress
JANTER · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
raregods · 1 game
Lich
JANTER · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
cutie · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 362 bans
Clockwerk
362 picks · 647 bans
Bane
341 picks · 386 bans
Rubick
341 picks · 192 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 347 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 450 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% FTS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% FTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
No Hoodwink 38%FTS 62%
The model gave 62% on FTS — the game was taken by No Hoodwink.
Game 2prediction missed43:30
No Hoodwink 41%FTS 59%
The model gave 59% on FTS — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerrubikon155
Clinkzcutie
Ember Spiritre1bl
Earth SpiritKatsura
Largomangekyou
Batriderelmo^^
Dark WillowKatari_
LichJANTER
Oracleasdekor_r
Nyx Assassinraregods
Model check result
Model favoriteFTS · 62%
Series resultNo Hoodwink 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2