EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs predictionNHNo Hoodwinkloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
re1bl · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
asdekor_r · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
mangekyou · 1 game
Doomoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katari_ · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 1 game
Level UP
Hoodwink
queezy · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 12 games
Windranger
queezy · 12 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
Undyingsignature
Htrd · 8 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 8 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
507 picks · 362 bans
Clockwerk
368 picks · 655 bans
Rubick
355 picks · 200 bans
Bane
330 picks · 373 bans
Tiny
323 picks · 348 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
311 picks · 233 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:8
No Hoodwink 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmastermangekyou
DoomBb3px
Broodmotherrubikon155
SlarkAinkrad
Ember Spiritre1bl
SpectreWoE
Enchantressasdekor_r
Witch DoctorHtrd
MiranaKatari_
Dark Willowqueezy
Game 2prediction correct20:28
No Hoodwink 42%Level UP 58%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerrubikon155
LunaWoE
Puckre1bl
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Batridermangekyou
Void SpiritAinkrad
Enchantressasdekor_r
Hoodwinkqueezy
MiranaKatari_
TechiesHtrd
Game 3prediction correct42:43
No Hoodwink 43%Level UP 57%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:00:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophosrubikon155
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Invokerre1bl
LunaWoE
Broodmothermangekyou
Void SpiritAinkrad
Baneasdekor_r
Rubickqueezy
LionKatari_
TechiesHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 66%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3